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    Q1 2019

    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey

    Bankers continue to remain glum about the future of the U.S. economy, although the level of concern may be bottoming out and showing early signs of a shift in direction.

    According to the Q1 2019 Promontory Interfinancial Network Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, almost half of respondents (48%) believe economic conditions will be the same 12 months from now, but only 17% expect conditions to improve—a five-point drop from last quarter and a 38-point drop from Q1 of last year.

    At the same time, Promontory Interfinancial Network’s proprietary Bank Experience IndexSM showed an uptick to 43.3 (almost a 1 point increase).1 With regard to the forward-looking Bank Confidence IndexSM, survey results showed a 3.3-point increase to 46.3, the first uptick in 5 quarters and the largest positive change to the Confidence Index since the survey began.1 Despite these increases, both indices have stayed below the 50-point watermark for five consecutive quarters.

    Fifty percent of bank leaders indicated commercial real estate is the loan category that would represent the biggest credit risk for their bank should the economy slide into a downturn later this year.

    Highlights from other parts of the survey include:

    [1] The Bank Confidence Index is meant to quantify bankers’ forward-looking expectations for the industry over the next 12 months, while the Bank Experience Index is meant to quantify bankers’ experiences over the last 12 months. These indices are calculated from responses to survey questions relating to four key factors: access to capital, loan demand, funding costs, and deposit competition.

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    Learn more about the Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey.