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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Surveys

    Promontory Interfinancial Network launched its inaugural Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey in Q1 2015 to reinforce its commitment to the banking industry. The survey was designed to gather and share information about bank decision-makers’ experiences over the past year and their expectations for how the industry landscape may change over the coming year. Participation, which is limited to bank CEOs, presidents, and CFOs, has grown substantially since its inception. Learn more.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2020, Q2

    As all are well aware, the U.S. economy shrank 9.5 percent from April through June, the largest quarterly decline since the government began publishing data 70 years ago. The results of the most recent Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey strongly reflect this sobering state of affairs.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2020, Q1

    What a difference three months make. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the outlook among bankers about the economy and the state of the industry was solidly positive. But as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertainty it has created, the view among bankers has sharply shifted direction.

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    2019 Annual Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey

    This report represents the results of surveys taken during each quarter of 2019 assessing banking conditions nationwide and making predictions for 2020. The annual survey collects those results, but reflects the views of bank executives before the COVID-19 national emergency that began in the early part of 2020. As such, the resulting data reflects positive sentiments that likely no longer reflect the views of the respondents facing the current crisis. It should be viewed as a historical reflection of how the banking industry viewed the situation prior to the pandemic.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2019, Q4

    This quarter’s Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey included five Banker Perspectives questions, running a gamut of issues from what strategies banks are using as competition for deposits remains high to the most effective tactics deployed to attract Millennial and Gen Z customers.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2019, Q3

    This quarter’s Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey included nine Banker Perspectives questions running a gamut of issues from the role of the Federal Reserve to whether peer-to-peer money transfers will replace cash, ATMs, and traditional services.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2019, Q2

    Maybe it was the prospect of the interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, or maybe higher reported profits compared to last year, but bank optimism is on the upswing.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2019, Q1

    Bankers continue to remain glum about the future of the U.S. economy, although the level of concern may be bottoming out and showing early signs of a shift in direction.

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    Annual Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey Report

    For bankers, 2018 was a turning point. Bankers noted a number of factors—weaker growth in loan demand, higher funding costs, more competition for deposits—that underscored a much tougher environment for the industry.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2018, Q4

    The banking sector has become decidedly pessimistic about the future of the U.S. economy and what it means for financial institutions.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2018, Q3

    On November 6, 2018, Americans went to the polls to vote on which party would control the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2018, Q2

    In May, President Trump signed into law a bill to provide some targeted regulatory relief from the Dodd-Frank Act. The Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act has been generally praised by the banking industry—but what provisions are most impactful to banks?

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2018, Q1

    Banker experiences over the past 12 months and their overall confidence in the next 12 months hit new lows since we started tracking these measures more than three years ago.

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    Annual Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey Report

    For bankers, the 2017 Bank Experience Index was strong and steady throughout—and got hot at the end.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2017, Q4

    Across a number of survey indicators, bankers’ views about the current state of the industry, as well as their expectations about its future, are pointing up.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2017, Q3

    Banks have been flush with deposits for some time now. Yet it appears that the competition for deposits has been heating up over the past year, and according to this quarter’s report of the Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, it’s only going to get hotter.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2017, Q2

    It’s not tax season, but based on the responses from this quarter’s report on the Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, the tax code is clearly on the minds of bank executives.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2017, Q1

    As a fintech firm, Promontory Interfinancial Network prides itself on providing innovative, technology-driven solutions for the banking sector. Therefore, it is not surprising that I am particularly interested in the section of this quarter’s report on the Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey that focuses on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and what it means for the banking industry.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2016, Q4

    If there is one word that would sum up the findings from this edition of the Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey it would be “divergence.” On the one hand, the transition to a new presidential administration and its potential impact on banking regulation and tax policy, alongside rising interest rates, are driving bankers to predict that 2017 is likely to be a very good year for banking.

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    2017 Funding and Deposits Report

    The marketplace for deposits remained relatively stable throughout 2016. The small increase in the federal funds rate at the end of 2015 did raise the cost of funding, but, overall, funding costs stayed at historically low rates and most banks—money center institutions, large regional banks, and community banks—remained fairly flush with deposits.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2016, Q3

    For those betting that the direction of the economy and the banking sector would become clearer this fall, you may need to pull out your wallets and pay up. After rising for two consecutive quarters, the Banker Confidence IndexSM (Index) dropped in the third quarter by 2 points over the 2nd quarter to 50.1—indicating that the banking sector is still cautious about its prospects over the next year.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2016, Q2

    The second quarter of 2016 did not offer a lot of answers for bank leaders looking to assess the direction of the economy and their industry. In general, C-level bank executives expressed a degree of optimism about some of the core conditions affecting their institutions.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2016, Q1

    A year ago when Promontory Interfinancial Network’s Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey was launched, the banking sector was generally bullish about the future of the industry. The prospect of Fed rate hikes and evidence of a rise in lending demand gave hope of a “return to normalcy” for the financial sector.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2015, Q4

    The big question of when the Federal Reserve would start raising rates was answered in December 2015. With that decision, the Federal Reserve changed the direction of interest rate policy for the first time since the advent of the financial crisis and Great Recession.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2015, Q3

    As momentum picks up for an expected rate increase at the end of 2015 or early 2016, bankers appear to be largely optimistic about the impact a potential increase might have on their institutions.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2015, Q2

    Until now, the primary evidence that we’re reaching the end of cheap funding for banks has been anecdotal. Statements from large banking-industry bellwethers have predicted an impending scramble for certain deposits and a steep rise in funding costs. Now, we’re seeing some early indications that the shift to a tighter funding environment is starting to happen.

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    Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey, 2015, Q1

    The banking sector has experienced a period of unprecedented structural change in recent years. Today’s bankers contend with a myriad of challenges, including post-crisis regulations, a more demanding consumer, and new competition from inside and outside of the industry.

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