Q2 2020 Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey

April 1, 2020

As all are well aware, the U.S. economy shrank 9.5% from April through June, the largest quarterly decline since the government began publishing data 70 years ago. The results of the most recent Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey strongly reflect this sobering state of affairs.

Banker opinions of the state of the U.S. economy became increasingly more
negative this quarter. Seventy-six percent of respondents reported overall
economic conditions for their bank had worsened from 12 months prior - a
marked change of +58 percentage points from Q2 2019. Only nine percent
noted economic conditions had improved compared to 12 months prior.

Looking to the future, 62% of respondents expected overall economic
conditions to worsen over the next 12 months, with more than half (55%)
predicting moderately worse conditions and another seven percent expecting
significantly worse conditions. Overall, that is a 34-point increase in
respondents who expected conditions to worsen from the same time in 2019.

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